Simulic
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Climate change responses – emissions pathways, warming and impacts to 2100

GeographyWeather & ClimateAges 15–16

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Choose mitigation measures (renewable electricity, clean transport, cleaner industry and buildings, energy efficiency, carbon capture, ending deforestation and planting forests, cutting methane) and adaptation (sea defences, drought-resistant crops, early warning), then see CO₂ emissions by sector, cumulative CO₂ and global warming to 2100 compared with the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets. The model uses a simple relation between cumulative CO₂ and warming (TCRE, with its uncertainty range); an impacts panel shows heatwaves, heavy rain, drought, crop yields, sea-level rise, coral reefs and Arctic sea ice from IPCC figures, with indicative costs and the international agreements from Kyoto to Paris.

Lesson: Responses to climate change: mitigation and adaptation, emissions pathways, the carbon budget, impacts and international agreements

What it shows

Global warming rises almost in proportion to the total CO₂ people have emitted, so temperatures stop rising only when net CO₂ emissions reach zero, and the Paris targets of 1.5 °C and well below 2 °C correspond to a remaining carbon budget. Mitigation cuts emissions or removes CO₂; adaptation reduces the harm from the warming that still happens. The simulation compares pathways, the year of net zero, peak warming and impacts such as heat extremes, crop yields and sea-level rise, using a simplified model with IPCC uncertainty ranges.

How to use

Drag Renewable electricity, Clean transport, Industry and buildings, Energy efficiency, Carbon capture, Forests and Methane and other gases, choose a baseline and Start action in, or press a Scenario button, then press Run to follow 2024–2100. Drag on a graph to choose a year. Tick Sea walls and defences, Drought- and heat-tolerant crops or Early warning systems. Add runs to the table to compare.

Parameters you can change

  • Baseline emissions without new measures Stay at today's level (≈ 41 Gt CO₂/year), Rise 1%/year
  • Year action starts 2025–2045
  • Cut in power-sector emissions from renewables (reached after 25 years) 0–100 %
  • Cut in transport emissions 0–100 %
  • Cut in industry and building emissions 0–100 %
  • Cut in energy demand from efficiency 0–40 %
  • CO₂ captured and stored (reached after 25 years) 0–10 Gt CO₂/year
  • End deforestation and plant forests (100% = net uptake of 3 Gt CO₂/year) 0–100 %
  • Cut in methane, N₂O and other gases 0–100 %
  • Build sea walls and coastal defences
  • Use drought- and heat-tolerant crops
  • Early warning systems
  • Show the uncertainty range of warming
  • Show international agreements on the graph

Questions to explore

  1. Why does warming continue while CO₂ emissions are falling, and stop only when net emissions reach zero?
  2. Keep the Strong action measures but start in 2040 instead of 2025: how much does warming in 2100 change?
  3. Which risks do sea defences and drought-tolerant crops reduce, and why can adaptation not replace mitigation?

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