Demographic transition model – five stages and their drivers
GeographyPopulation & SettlementAges 15–16
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Sign in to playThe demographic transition model with crude birth rate, crude death rate and total population across five stages, with natural increase shaded. Drag along the timeline or set six drivers yourself (health care, sanitation, food supply, women's education, contraception, urbanisation) and watch the rates respond, see an illustrative population pyramid for each stage, and place example countries (Niger, Kenya, India, Brazil, USA, Germany, Japan) on the model using their approximate real rates.
Lesson: Population change: birth rate, death rate, natural increase and the demographic transition model
What it shows
The demographic transition model describes how birth and death rates change as a society develops. In stage 1 both are high; in stage 2 better health care, sanitation and food cut the death rate; in stage 3 education, contraception and city life cut the birth rate; in stage 4 both are low; in stage 5 births fall below deaths. Here the rates come from six drivers with illustrative weights. Natural increase in per cent equals (birth rate − death rate) / 10, with both rates in ‰.
How to use
Press Play or drag the Time slider (or the chart) to move through the stages. Move any driver, such as Contraception or Health care, to build your own society and see which stage it matches; press Follow model to return. Click an example country to place it on the model and read the note.
Parameters you can change
- Starting position on the timeline 0–100 %
- Playback speed 1–20 %/s
- Show illustrative population pyramid
- Show example countries
- Shade natural increase
- Show total population line
Questions to explore
- Why does total population grow fastest in stage 2 and early stage 3?
- Why is Niger's death rate so low while its birth rate is still very high?
- What makes the death rate rise again in stage 5?
