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Food security – supply, demand, Malthus vs Boserup and strategies

GeographyGlobal Economy & DevelopmentAges 16–17

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An imaginary country with population growth, cropland, water, fertiliser, irrigation, droughts, conflict, diet, food waste and trade. Follow calories per person, the prevalence of undernourishment and a food price index over 40 years, compare Malthus with Boserup, and test large-scale and sustainable strategies against their costs in water, emissions, land and forest, next to a world map of undernourishment by region.

Lesson: Global food security: food supply and demand, undernourishment, Malthus and Boserup, strategies to increase food supply

What it shows

Food security means everyone has enough safe, nutritious food at all times. In this model of an imaginary country, food supply depends on cropland, yields (fertiliser, irrigation, soil health), droughts, conflict and trade, while demand depends on population and diet; part of the food is lost or wasted. Undernourishment is computed with the FAO method from calories per person and unequal access. Compare Malthus, who predicted that population outgrows food, with Boserup, who argued that shortage drives intensification, and weigh large-scale against sustainable strategies.

How to use

Set Population growth, Diet, Loss & waste and Net imports, then Cropland, Water, Fertiliser, Irrigated, Climate, Conflict and Farming. Press Run or +1 year; +1 year (drought) forces a dry year and New weather gives other weather years. Tick large-scale or sustainable strategies, watch the graphs and the cost bars, and press Add to table to compare runs. Tap a region on the map to see its value.

Parameters you can change

  • Population growth rate 0–4 %/year
  • Cropland area 2–12 million ha
  • Water available for farming Scarce (5 km³/year), Moderate (15 km³/year), Abundant (40 km³/year)
  • Nitrogen fertiliser 0–200 kg N/ha/year
  • Share of cropland irrigated 0–80 %
  • Food loss and waste 5–50 %
  • Diet Mostly plant-based (10% of crops fed to animals), Mixed (30%), Meat-rich (50%)
  • Net food imports (negative = exports) -30–60 % of production
  • Climate shocks Stable, Variable (drought in 12% of years), Severe (drought in 25% of years, warming)
  • Conflict None, Local, Widespread
  • How farming responds Malthus: food grows by a fixed amount, Boserup: shortage drives intensification
  • Large irrigation scheme (dam, canals)
  • GM / high-yield varieties
  • Aquaculture
  • Clear 30% more farmland
  • Halve food loss and waste
  • Soil conservation (terraces, contour ploughing)
  • Agroecology / permaculture
  • Local sourcing

Questions to explore

  1. In the Malthus setting, when does population pass the crisis point, and what happens to population growth afterwards?
  2. Which raises calories per person more: halving food waste or clearing 30% more land, and which harms the environment less?
  3. Why can a large irrigation scheme in a water-scarce country lead to lower harvests after a few decades?

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